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Department of Political Science

Rebels in Representative Democracy: The Appeal and Consequences of Political Defection in Europe

Political outsiders have been successful in elections in many Western countries for several years. Politicians of all ideological persuasions gain more support when they rebel against their own party or the political system. In political science, this behaviour has often been studied in the context of populism research. So far, however, there is a lack of a solid understanding of when and why voters are increasingly interested in rebels in politics. The question is particularly relevant because the approval of rebellious behaviour potentially undermines trust in a political system and the parties that support it.

Against this background, Prof. Proksch formulates the following research questions: When and why do voters value rebellious behaviour? What narrative do rebels follow and how is this narrative made attractive to the electorate? Are there conditions under which voters punish rather than honour rebellious behaviour? And what are the consequences of rebellious behaviour for party competition and citizens' trust in representative democracy?

Theoretically, the project is based on the assumptions of the principal-agent approach. Politicians are understood as agents who are beholden to two different headmasters: the voters and the party. Six hypotheses are derived from these basic assumptions: Voters prefer rebellion if the position of the rebelling politician and their own position or the position of assumed public opinion are congruent. Furthermore, it is assumed that voters prefer rebellion regardless of their position on a particular policy. The effects of these assumptions also depend on whether the mainstream party leadership tolerates or rejects the rebellious behaviour and whether the electoral system is more candidate-centred or party-centred. Furthermore, the effects are influenced by a party's position in the political system.

Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom are used as case studies for an empirical investigation. Germany and Italy have party-centred electoral systems, while the UK and France have candidate-centred electoral systems. The cases differ not only in terms of their electoral systems, but also in terms of the salience of certain political issues. According to data from the Eurobarometer of November 2017, the issue of migration has a high salience in Germany and Italy, while in France and Italy the issue of unemployment in particular receives high attention.

In the first work package, the reactions to Twitter messages from parliamentarians in the four countries under investigation will be examined in the period from 2018 to 2020.

The second work package involves a survey with approximately 3,000 people per country. In the surveys, rebellious behaviour is modelled and people are asked about their voting intention and approval of hypothetical candidates. Exemplary topics such as taxes, migration or competence transfers to the European Union will be asked.

The results of the project will help to understand when rebellion contributes to undermining and when to supporting democratic structures.